zhenhua chemical(SH:603067) Guohai Securities·2025-11-04 09:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the SOFC industry, indicating a favorable outlook driven by AI electricity demand and an upcoming boom cycle [8][37]. Core Insights - The SOFC industry is expected to experience significant growth due to increasing electricity demand from AI data centers, with projections of 35GW of new data center capacity in the next five years, which is more than six times the average annual energy capacity of New York City [5][31]. - The demand for chromium salts is anticipated to rise sharply, with estimates suggesting that 1GW of SOFC demand will require 0.82 million tons of metallic chromium and 2.95 million tons of sodium dichromate, while a 10GW market space will correspond to 8.2 million tons of metallic chromium and 29.55 million tons of sodium dichromate [4][32]. - The report highlights that the chromium salt industry is undergoing a value reassessment, driven by increased demand from AI data centers and commercial aircraft engines, with the potential for chromium salts to become a scarce resource in AI electricity development [6][34]. Summary by Sections SOFC Demand Growth - SOFC technology features a simple manufacturing process that significantly reduces costs, with the structure comprising an anode, electrolyte, and cathode [16]. - The metallic interconnects in SOFCs, primarily composed of chromium alloys, are crucial for the system's performance and are expected to drive up the demand for chromium salts and metallic chromium [23][31]. Market Projections - The report projects that by 2028, the supply-demand gap for chromium salts will reach 340,900 tons, with a gap ratio of 32% [4][34]. - The global production capacity for sodium dichromate is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.5% from 2024 to 2028, while demand is projected to increase at a CAGR of 10.9% during the same period [9][35]. Key Companies and Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on key companies such as Zhihua Co., Ltd. (global leader in chromium salts), Sanhuan Group (core supplier of electrolyte membranes), Yishitong (key supplier of solid oxide fuel cell materials), and Weichai Power (actively promoting SOFC commercialization) [8][37][38]. - The earnings forecasts for these companies indicate a positive outlook, with Zhihua Co., Ltd. expected to have an EPS of 0.85 in 2025, reflecting strong growth potential [38].