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芯源微(688037):业绩短期承压,看好Track国产替代加速

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance but is expected to benefit from accelerated domestic substitution in the semiconductor equipment sector [1] - The company has seen a decline in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, primarily due to order structure and delivery cycles [1] - The company is positioned as a leader in photoresist coating and cleaning equipment, with significant growth potential from new product lines [1] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 1,717 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 23.98% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 250.63 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.21% [1] - The company anticipates a revenue increase to 1,980 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 12.89% [1] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 232.61 million yuan, showing a recovery with a year-on-year growth of 14.69% [1] Key Financial Metrics - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 1.24 yuan, with a projected decline to 1.01 yuan in 2024 before recovering to 1.15 yuan in 2025 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 104.01 for 2025, indicating a valuation adjustment as earnings recover [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was reported at 34.5%, down 7.9 percentage points year-on-year [1]