TRANSSION(SH:688036) Changjiang Securities·2025-11-04 10:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 49.543 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.33%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.148 billion yuan, down 44.97% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.731 billion yuan, a decline of 46.71% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 20.466 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.60%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.935 billion yuan, down 11.06% year-on-year. The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 18.59%, a decrease of 3.13 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 4.57%, down 1.73 percentage points year-on-year [2][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported total revenue of 49.543 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.33% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.148 billion yuan, down 44.97% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.731 billion yuan, a decline of 46.71% year-on-year. For Q3 2025, the revenue was 20.466 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.60%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.935 billion yuan, down 11.06% year-on-year. The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 18.59%, a decrease of 3.13 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 4.57%, down 1.73 percentage points year-on-year [2][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has seen a recovery in smartphone sales driven by the launch of new models such as Camon40 and PovaCurve. In Q3 2025, the company sold 29.2 million smartphones, a year-on-year increase of 13.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.3%, achieving a global market share of 9%, ranking fourth globally. The company maintains a strong brand and channel advantage in Africa and is actively expanding into Southeast Asia and Latin America, which is expected to drive revenue growth [14]. Challenges and Opportunities - The rising prices of storage components have negatively impacted the company's profitability, with Q3 2025 gross margin at 18.59%, down 3.13 percentage points year-on-year. The company is expected to face challenges due to ongoing supply constraints in the storage market. However, the company has the ability to pass on some of these costs to consumers through price increases on new models and has established long-term partnerships with domestic storage manufacturers to alleviate supply pressures. The cyclical nature of storage prices may lead to a more concentrated smartphone industry, benefiting the company as a leading manufacturer [14]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to the parent company of 3.216 billion yuan, 4.594 billion yuan, and 6.047 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Despite short-term pressures from rising storage prices, the company's brand strength in Africa and the trend of AI implementation are expected to remain unaffected, supporting a positive outlook for the company's ability to navigate through cycles [14].