BTG Hotels(SH:600258) Haitong Securities International·2025-11-04 11:03Investment Rating - Maintain Outperform rating with a target price of 18.63 RMB, reflecting a 25x PE valuation for 2025 [4][9]. Core Insights - The company is entering a recovery phase with a narrowing decline in performance metrics, benefiting from accelerated store openings and improving operational efficiency [4][9]. - Q3 2025 revenue was 2.12 billion RMB, a decrease of 1.60%, while net profit was 0.36 billion RMB, down 2.21%. For the first three quarters, revenue totaled 5.78 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 1.81%, with net profit increasing by 4.36% to 0.75 billion RMB [4][9]. - Key performance indicators showed RevPAR at -2.8%, occupancy rate (OCC) at -0.8%, and average daily rate (ADR) at -1.7%, indicating a recovery trend compared to previous quarters [4][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025E are 7.63 billion RMB, with a net profit of 0.85 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 5.7% from the previous year [3][4]. - Gross margin for Q3 2025 was 44.79%, with sales expense ratio at 8.85% and general & administrative expense ratio at 9.92% [4][9]. - The company opened 387 new stores in Q3 2025, accelerating from 364 in Q2 and 300 in Q1, indicating a strong recovery in core brand expansion [4][9].