山西汾酒（600809）：经营韧性凸显，Q3省外市场发力

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a third-quarter revenue of 8.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.05%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.899 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.38% year-on-year [2][4] - The performance of the Qinghua 20 and Glass Fen products was strong, with significant growth in the out-of-province market. The company adjusted its product structure and sales strategy in response to economic conditions [4][5] - The company is expected to achieve low single-digit revenue growth for the full year, with profit growth remaining flat. Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 12.302 billion, 12.899 billion, and 13.647 billion yuan, respectively [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue and profit increased by 5.0% and 0.48% year-on-year, respectively. The third quarter saw a revenue increase of 4.05% but a profit decrease of 1.38% [4][5] - The sales net profit margin for the first three quarters was 34.78%, down 1.45 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross profit margin was 76.10%, up 0.07 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 31.928 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21.8%, and net profit at 10.438 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 28.9% [8][9] Product and Market Analysis - The company’s product lines include strong performers like Glass Fen and Qinghua series, with the Qinghua 20 showing double-digit growth. However, the Qinghua 30 experienced a significant decline [4][5] - In terms of regional performance, the company saw a 7.52% decrease in revenue from the domestic market for the first three quarters, while the out-of-province market grew by 12.72% [4][5] Valuation Metrics - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 10.08 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18.9, 18.0, and 17.0 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 37.0% in 2023 to 22.3% by 2027 [10][11]