CNNP(SH:601985) Guoxin Securities·2025-11-04 11:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][21][26] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 61.635 billion yuan, an increase of 8.16% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.42% to 8.002 billion yuan. The decline in net profit is attributed to the pressure from the new energy business, which saw revenue growth without profit increase, as well as dilution effects from issuing REITs and market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps [1][7][15] - The company has a steady growth in installed capacity, with 26 operational nuclear units and a total capacity of 25 million kilowatts, alongside 19 units under construction or awaiting approval with a capacity of 21.859 million kilowatts [2][19] - Recent adjustments to VAT policies for nuclear and wind power are expected to have minimal short-term impact on nuclear profitability, as the actual VAT refunds are not anticipated due to prior input tax deductions [3][20] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a total operating revenue of 61.635 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.16%, and a net profit of 8.002 billion yuan, down 10.42% [1][7] - The third quarter alone saw revenues of 20.662 billion yuan, up 5.72% year-on-year, but net profit fell by 23.45% to 2.336 billion yuan [1][7] - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by an increase in power generation, while net profit decline is influenced by various factors including falling electricity prices and rising costs [1][15] Installed Capacity and Construction - As of September 30, the company has 26 operational nuclear units with a total capacity of 25 million kilowatts and 19 units under construction with a capacity of 21.859 million kilowatts [2][19] - The company also has 3,348.47 MW of operational renewable energy capacity, including 1,049.13 MW of wind power and 2,299.34 MW of solar power [2][19] Policy Adjustments - The recent VAT policy changes for wind and nuclear power are set to take effect from November 1, 2025, with a 50% immediate refund for offshore wind power sales. Existing nuclear units will continue under the previous policy, while new approvals post-November will not benefit from the same tax relief [3][20] Profit Forecasts - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 9.230 billion, 10.007 billion, and 11.089 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 5%, 8%, and 11% [4][21]