KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Shanxi Securities·2025-11-04 12:27Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [3][6]. Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of 130.90 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 64.63 billion yuan, also up 6.25% year-on-year [4][6]. - The revenue from Moutai liquor grew by 7% year-on-year in Q3 2025, while the revenue from series liquor declined by 34% [4]. - The report highlights that the direct sales channel saw a revenue drop of 15%, primarily due to a more than 50% decline in revenue from the "i Moutai" platform [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 39.81 billion yuan, a 0.35% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 19.22 billion yuan, up 0.48% year-on-year [4]. - The net profit margin and gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 were 52.08% and 91.29%, respectively, showing slight year-on-year declines [5]. - The company expects net profits of 90.46 billion yuan, 97.32 billion yuan, and 105.20 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 72.24 yuan, 77.71 yuan, and 84.01 yuan [6][9]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenue for 2025 is 184.96 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2% [9]. - The report anticipates a gross margin of approximately 92% for the upcoming years, indicating stable profitability [9][11]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 31.3% in 2025, decreasing gradually to 24.6% by 2027 [9].