2025年11月大类资产配置月报：国债配置价值边际上升-20251104

• The macro scoring model indicates a shift in asset preferences, showing a downgrade in risk asset scores and an upgrade in Chinese government bonds to neutral. This adjustment reflects the marginal weakening of domestic and global economic indicators, as well as a balanced outlook for risk assets[19][20] - The US equity timing model suggests potential short-term upside for US equities due to strong AI narratives and the absence of critical economic data during the government shutdown. However, risks may emerge once the government reopens and economic data is released, potentially falling below market expectations[21][22] - The gold timing model highlights continued support for gold's medium-term upward trend, driven by accelerated global de-dollarization. However, short-term pressures from strong US economic expectations and dollar strength may lead to gold price fluctuations[23][27] - The crude oil timing model shows a weakening fundamental outlook, with the oil sentiment index dropping from 0.39 to 0.14. All sub-indicators, including demand, inventory, and macro risk levels, have declined, suggesting limited upward elasticity for oil prices[26][28][30] - The asset allocation strategy for October achieved a return of 2.1%, with a 12.9% return over the past year and a maximum drawdown of 2.9%. The optimized allocation increased the proportion of 10-year government bonds to 58.7%, while reducing exposure to risk assets such as equities, gold, and copper[3][31][34]