巴比食品（605338）：单店收入持续反弹，扣非净利率协同提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark index within the next six months [5][19]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.356 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, with a net profit of 201 million yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit reached 175 million yuan, reflecting a 19.4% increase year-on-year [1]. - The single-store revenue showed a significant rebound, with a quarterly revenue of 522 million yuan in Q3 2025, marking a 16.7% year-on-year increase. The non-recurring net profit for Q3 was 74 million yuan, up 25.5% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is experiencing steady growth in its catering business, with a total of 5,934 franchise stores as of Q3 2025, netting an increase of 791 stores [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 28.01%, an increase of 1.61 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 14.83%, a decrease of 1.22 percentage points year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit margin improved to 12.91%, up 0.79 percentage points [4]. - The company’s franchise sales, direct store sales, and catering sales for Q1-Q3 2025 were 1.014 billion yuan, 17 million yuan, and 307 million yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 11%, 12.12%, and 16.28% [3]. Regional Performance - Revenue by region for Q1-Q3 2025 was 1.116 billion yuan in East China, 115 million yuan in South China, 81 million yuan in Central China, and 43 million yuan in North China, with East China showing the fastest growth at 12.78% year-on-year [3]. Future Earnings Forecast - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 276 million yuan, 304 million yuan, and 335 million yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 24, 22, and 20 times, respectively [5].