广州酒家（603043）：月饼销售表现良好，餐饮业务彰显韧性

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of 19.58 RMB, which is slightly above the industry average PE of 22x for 2025 [4][9]. Core Insights - The company demonstrates stable operations and emphasizes shareholder returns, with a focus on the dual business model of "food + catering" and a strong market position in Guangdong, along with expansion potential outside the province [4][9]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.29 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 449 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 0.31% [10][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 4,901 million RMB (2023A), 5,124 million RMB (2024A), 5,373 million RMB (2025E), 5,847 million RMB (2026E), and 6,349 million RMB (2027E), with growth rates of 19.2%, 4.6%, 4.9%, 8.8%, and 8.6% respectively [3][5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 550 million RMB (2023A), 494 million RMB (2024A), 504 million RMB (2025E), 548 million RMB (2026E), and 592 million RMB (2027E), with year-on-year changes of 5.2%, -10.3%, 2.1%, 8.7%, and 8.0% respectively [3][5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 56.25 million RMB, with a payout ratio of 12.51% [10][12]. Business Performance - The food manufacturing segment generated a revenue of 3.08 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, with mooncake sales contributing 1.46 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.15% [11]. - The catering services segment reported a revenue of 1.13 billion RMB, up 3.88% year-on-year [11]. - The company has received approval for an equity incentive plan, focusing on shareholder returns through share buybacks and dividends, with 6.32 million shares repurchased as of October 31, 2025 [12].