Semir(SZ:002563) Soochow Securities·2025-11-04 15:12Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a Q3 profit margin recovery compared to the previous quarter, with a good sales start in Q4 [8] - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters was 9.844 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.74%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 537 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.90% [8] - The company is expected to benefit from colder weather, leading to a double-digit year-on-year growth in terminal retail in October, setting a solid foundation for revenue growth in Q4 [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 13.661 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.47% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A is projected at 1.1215 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 76.06% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023A is 0.42 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 13.00 [1] - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters was 45.12%, a slight increase of 0.36 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters was -485 million yuan, primarily due to increased payments for goods and prepayments [8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for total revenue from 2025E to 2027E is 15.680 billion yuan, 16.897 billion yuan, and 18.174 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.21%, 7.76%, and 7.56% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025E is expected to be 978.78 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.95% [1] - The projected EPS for 2025E is 0.36 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 14.89 [1]