KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) China Post Securities·2025-11-05 02:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [12]. Core Views - The company's revenue and profit for the third quarter met expectations, with total revenue of 130.9 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders of 64.63 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.32% and 6.25% respectively [3][6]. - The high-end liquor segment showed steady growth despite external pressures, while the series liquor segment faced challenges, with series liquor revenue declining by 7.78% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company is expected to adjust its annual targets in response to market pressures, with projected revenues for 2025-2027 of 182.91 billion yuan, 192.69 billion yuan, and 205.30 billion yuan, representing growth rates of 5.03%, 5.34%, and 6.55% respectively [6][10]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 1,430.01 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 179.08 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a total share capital of 1.252 billion shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 19.0% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.83 [2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the gross margin was 91.46%, and the net profit margin was 49.37%, showing slight declines compared to the previous year [5]. - The company reported a total cash collection of 138.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.02%, while the net cash flow from operations was 38.20 billion yuan, down 14.01% year-on-year [5][10]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for the next three years are 72.36 yuan, 76.53 yuan, and 82.00 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 20, 19, and 18 [6][10].