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国投电力(600886):来水偏枯业绩承压自由现金流显著改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to reduced water inflow, but free cash flow has significantly improved [5] - The company reported a revenue of 40.6 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.517 billion yuan, down 0.92% year-on-year [6] - The company has a strong position in hydropower with significant potential for future growth, particularly in the Yalong River hydropower base [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Closing price as of November 4, 2025, is 14.53 yuan, with a yearly high of 16.90 yuan and a low of 13.00 yuan [3] - Total market capitalization is approximately 116.31 billion yuan [3] Financial Data - The company expects revenue to be 55.783 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 3.52% year-on-year, with a projected net profit of 7.091 billion yuan, an increase of 6.74% [5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.89 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.40 [5] Operational Highlights - The company has improved its free cash flow significantly, with a net cash increase of 9 billion yuan in the first three quarters [6] - The company has a total installed capacity of 44.75 million kilowatts, with a focus on hydropower, thermal power, wind, solar, and energy storage [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 55%, with a projected dividend yield of 3.35% in 2025 [5] - The Yalong River hydropower base has a total potential capacity of 30 million kilowatts, with over 7 GW of hydropower yet to be developed [6]