NHD(SZ:002946) China Post Securities·2025-11-05 04:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [12]. Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of 8.434 billion yuan and a net profit of 623 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.49% in revenue and 31.48% in net profit [4]. - The gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters were 29.47% and 7.39%, respectively, with improvements attributed to enhanced product structure and reduced management expenses [4]. - The low-temperature product category continued to show double-digit growth, while the ambient temperature segment experienced slight declines [6]. - New product launches, particularly in high-end low-temperature categories, contributed significantly to revenue growth [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported total revenue of 2.908 billion yuan and a net profit of 226 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.42% and 27.67%, respectively [5]. - The company expects revenue growth to improve as demand for ambient milk gradually recovers, with projected revenues of 11.113 billion yuan, 11.853 billion yuan, and 12.858 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7]. - The forecasted net profit for the same years is 707 million yuan, 862 million yuan, and 1.033 billion yuan, indicating strong growth rates of 31.63%, 21.80%, and 19.84% [7]. Financial Metrics - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 27.72 in 2024 to 14.43 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [10]. - The asset-liability ratio is expected to decline from 64.6% in 2024 to 51.3% in 2027, reflecting improved financial stability [11]. - The company’s EPS is forecasted to grow from 0.62 yuan in 2024 to 1.20 yuan in 2027, showcasing strong earnings growth potential [10].