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潮宏基(002345):产品渠道双驱动,业绩更上一层楼

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.237 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.35%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 317 million yuan, up 0.33% year-on-year. Excluding goodwill impairment, the net profit was 488 million yuan, a significant increase of 54.52% year-on-year [4][5]. - The jewelry business saw a revenue increase of 53.55% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with net profit rising by 86.80%, indicating strong performance [5]. - The company is focusing on expanding its store network, with a total of 1,599 jewelry stores as of September 2025, including 1,412 franchise stores, which exceeded the opening target [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: 12.20 yuan - Total shares: 889 million, circulating shares: 867 million - Total market value: 10.8 billion yuan, circulating market value: 10.6 billion yuan - 52-week high/low: 17.39/4.75 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 36.1% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 55.45 [3]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.135 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.52%. The net profit was -14 million yuan, down 116.52% year-on-year, but excluding goodwill impairment, the net profit was 157 million yuan, up 81.54% year-on-year [4][5]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 21.93%, a decrease of 2.27 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales expense ratio was 8.23%, down 4.02 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Future Outlook - The company plans to open 20 jewelry stores in overseas markets by 2028, with a focus on Southeast Asia, and aims to establish a Hong Kong headquarters to manage international operations [6][10]. - The "1+N" brand strategy will be implemented to capture emerging markets and trends, with ongoing upgrades to the FION brand and the development of the Cevol brand [10][11]. Earnings Forecast - Projected revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 23%, 18%, and 16%, respectively. The net profit growth rates are expected to be 130%, 49%, and 25% for the same period [11][13].