盐湖股份（000792）：五矿入主带来新动能，钾锂双龙头再出发

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 31.49 CNY, based on a current price of 23.87 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792), is positioned as a dual leader in potassium and lithium industries, leveraging its resource advantages from the Qarhan Salt Lake. The company has a current production capacity of 5 million tons of potassium chloride and 40,000 tons of lithium carbonate, with plans to expand lithium capacity to over 200,000 tons by 2030 [1][4]. - The entry of China Minmetals Corporation as the controlling shareholder is expected to bring new momentum for the company, enhancing its international competitiveness and operational efficiency [1][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. has a rich history dating back to 1958, originally established as the Qarhan Potash Fertilizer Plant. The company has undergone significant restructuring and has been profitable for five consecutive years since exiting bankruptcy in 2019 [1][15]. - The company has transitioned to focus on potassium and lithium production, having divested from loss-making segments such as magnesium and PVC [1][20]. 2. Lithium Industry - The lithium sector is expected to see gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with high-cost production being phased out and new technologies like solid-state batteries driving long-term demand [2][54]. - The company holds significant lithium resources, with lithium chloride reserves of approximately 1.2 million tons, making it a key player in the domestic lithium market [33][39]. 3. Potassium Industry - The global potassium supply is concentrated, with demand expected to grow moderately. The company is the largest producer of potassium fertilizer in China, with a production capacity of 5 million tons [3][4]. - The potassium fertilizer market is characterized by stable demand, particularly in agricultural regions such as China, Latin America, and North America [3][4]. 4. Financial Projections and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 6.48 billion CNY, 7.06 billion CNY, and 7.83 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting growth rates of +39.00%, +8.95%, and +10.81% [4]. - The report anticipates a recovery in lithium prices and stable potassium prices, which will contribute to the company's financial performance [4][20].