南华期货生猪企业风险管理日报-20251105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy interventions have affected the long - term supply of live pigs. Long - term strategic outlook can be bullish, but short - to medium - term trends are still based on fundamentals. The policy bottom has emerged, but the market bottom may take a production cycle to form. Currently, the market is in a state of oversupply, and short - term pig prices have dropped rapidly due to concentrated slaughtering. With the arrival of the peak season, demand will improve, and there may be a structural shortage of large pigs, supporting prices during the peak season [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Price Range Forecast - The predicted price range for the main contract is 11,000 - 13,500. The current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 24.24%, and the current volatility's historical percentile (3 - year) is 75.74% [2] 3.2 Pig Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - Inventory Management: For high product inventory and fear of inventory impairment risk, strategies include short - selling live pig futures to lock in profits according to the inventory, selling call options when there is no suitable price on the futures market, and buying out - of - the - money put options to not miss potential price increases. Recommended ratios for short - selling futures and selling call options are both 10% [2] - Procurement Management: For future procurement plans and fear of raw material price increases, strategies are to buy live pig forward contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in costs, sell put options when there is no suitable price on the futures market, and buy out - of - the - money call options when not wanting to lock in profits in advance and expecting lower costs [2] 3.3 Core Contradictions - Policy interventions may impact long - term supply. The policy bottom has appeared, but the market bottom needs time. The current fundamental situation is oversupply, and short - term price drops are due to concentrated slaughtering. Recently, the number of pigs sold by large farms and second - fattening groups has decreased, and some second - fattening has started restocking. With the peak season, demand will improve, and there may be a shortage of large pigs [3] 3.4利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors, translated from Chinese) - Macro sentiment has improved, boosting market confidence. The price difference between standard and fat pigs is at a relatively high level in the same period. There is a medium - to long - term expectation of capacity reduction in the policy. The current pig price is low, fattening costs are down, and second - fattening speculators are entering the market. Large farms are selling fewer pigs [6] 3.5利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors, translated from Chinese) - The inventory of breeding sows is still relatively high. The inventory of large - scale enterprises is at a three - year high. Terminal consumption downstream is weak. The occupancy rate of second - fattening pens has returned to a high level [6][7] 3.6 Pig Spot Prices - The national average pig spot price is 11.78 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan or 1.26%. Prices in Henan, Hunan, Liaoning, Sichuan, and Guangdong also show declines [9] 3.7 Pig Futures Prices - The closing prices of pig futures contracts 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, and 11 are 11,685, 11,360, 11,860, 12,465, 13,255, and 11,550 yuan/ton respectively, with no change on the day [10] 3.8 Pig Price Spreads and Basis - Spreads and basis such as LH01 - 03, LH03 - 05, etc., show different degrees of change, with LH01 - 03 down 22.62%, LH03 - 05 up 3.09%, etc [16]