新天然气（603393）：费用提升短期业绩承压，长期增量可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 930 million yuan for Q3 2025, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 194 million yuan, down 30.1% year-on-year [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 815 million yuan, a decline of 7.53% year-on-year [1]. - The increase in costs due to upstream resource acquisition has put short-term pressure on performance, but long-term growth is anticipated due to sufficient resource reserves [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company experienced a revenue decrease of approximately 81 million yuan, primarily due to changes in accounting methods and reduced natural gas sales in Xinjiang [3]. - Financial expenses increased by 77 million yuan and management expenses rose by 33 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 due to investments in upstream resource acquisition [3]. Production and Sales - The total production from the Pan Zhuang and Ma Bi blocks was approximately 1.512 billion cubic meters, a 1.99% increase from the previous year [2]. - The average selling price for the Pan Zhuang block was 2.09 yuan, up 1.98% year-on-year, while the Ma Bi block's average selling price decreased by 0.05 yuan to 2.27 yuan [2]. Resource Reserves - The company has substantial resource reserves in various regions, including Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Guizhou, which are expected to support future profit growth [4]. - The proven natural gas reserves in the first designated area were approved at 44.644 billion cubic meters [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1.25 billion yuan, 1.43 billion yuan, and 1.69 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.2, 8.6, and 7.2 [5]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 3.52 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.89 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14.43% [5].