SDIC Power(SH:600886) Zhongyuan Securities·2025-11-05 09:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [3][32]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue due to a drop in thermal power generation, with Q3 2025 revenue at 14.876 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.98%. Net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.723 billion yuan, down 3.94% year-on-year [7][8]. - The total power generation decreased by 6.36% year-on-year, with thermal power generation down by 20.15%, primarily due to increased clean energy generation in certain regions [8][9]. - The average on-grid electricity price fell by 3.9% year-on-year to 0.346 yuan/kWh, with a smaller decline of 0.9% in Q3 compared to previous quarters [9]. - The company's total operating costs decreased by 12.46% year-on-year, supported by falling coal prices and reduced financial expenses [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 40.572 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.61% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.517 billion yuan, down 0.92% year-on-year [7]. - The company’s operating cash flow increased by 12.69% year-on-year, reaching 24.073 billion yuan [10]. Power Generation Breakdown - The company’s power generation mix for the first three quarters was 63.5% hydropower, 28.3% thermal power, and 8.2% from wind and solar [8][11]. - Hydropower generation was 79.325 billion kWh, down 1.27% year-on-year, while thermal power generation was 35.423 billion kWh, down 20.15% year-on-year [8]. Dividend Policy - The company has increased its cash dividend payout ratio from 50% to 55% for the 2023 fiscal year and plans to maintain this ratio for 2024, with a total cash dividend of 3.654 billion yuan [12]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to generate net profits of 6.803 billion yuan, 7.116 billion yuan, and 7.576 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.85 yuan, 0.89 yuan, and 0.95 yuan [13][14].