甘李药业(603087):2025 年三季报点评:国内外协同发力,新兴市场出海取得突破

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 67.2 yuan based on a 28x PE valuation for 2026 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company continues to show strong growth, with a revenue of 30.5 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 8.2 billion yuan, up 61.3% year-on-year [10]. - The company's domestic insulin sales reached 26.2 billion yuan, growing by 45.6% year-on-year, driven by the effects of price recovery following the renewal of insulin procurement [10]. - The company has made significant strides in emerging markets, particularly in Brazil, where it signed a major contract worth no less than 3 billion yuan over ten years for a public health project [10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 42.02 billion yuan, 51.81 billion yuan, and 61.15 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.0%, 23.3%, and 18.0% [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1.14 billion yuan, 1.43 billion yuan, and 1.70 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 85.6%, 25.8%, and 18.3% [8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 78.7% in 2025, with a net margin of 27.1% [8].