拓荆科技(688072):2025年三季报点评:先进制程设备放量驱动业绩高增,积极把握国产替代机遇

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [6][21]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 124.15% year-on-year and 81.94% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 2.266 billion yuan in Q3 2025. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 462 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 225.07% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 91.60% [6][7]. - The company is actively seizing opportunities in domestic semiconductor equipment replacement, enhancing product innovation and industrial application. R&D expenses reached 184 million yuan in Q3 2025, up 10.87% year-on-year, with a research expense ratio of 8.13% [6][7]. - The company has become a leading domestic manufacturer in the integrated circuit field, with comprehensive coverage of hard mask processes and the highest market share in ALD equipment thin film processes [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 4.103 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 51.7%. By 2025E, revenue is expected to reach 6.531 billion yuan, growing by 59.2% [6][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 688 million yuan in 2024A, increasing to 1.035 billion yuan in 2025E, representing a growth rate of 50.4% [6][7]. - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2025 was 34.42%, with a net profit margin of 20.00%, showing an improvement in profitability despite a slight decline in gross margin due to new product costs [6][7].