Guangzhou Restaurant(SH:603043) Wanlian Securities·2025-11-05 10:19Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a projected relative price increase of 5% to 15% over the next six months compared to the market benchmark [5][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a steady performance in the first three quarters of 2025, achieving a revenue of 4.285 billion yuan (YoY +4.43%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 449 million yuan (YoY +0.31%) [2]. - The mooncake segment remains robust, with revenue of 1.458 billion yuan (YoY +1.15%) and a total sales volume of 13.98 million boxes, reflecting a 1.75% increase year-on-year [3]. - The company has initiated a mid-term dividend distribution, proposing a cash dividend of 0.10 yuan per share, which represents 12.51% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.293 billion yuan (YoY +4.66%) and a net profit of 423 million yuan (YoY +5.26%) [2]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 39.77%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 18.45%, up by 0.10 percentage points [4]. Product Segmentation - Revenue from frozen foods reached 786 million yuan (YoY +1.78%), showing signs of recovery in Q3 [3]. - Other products benefited from channel expansion, achieving a revenue of 838 million yuan (YoY +15.24%) [3]. - The restaurant business generated 1.131 billion yuan (YoY +3.88%), although it faced challenges in consumer demand during Q3 [3]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth was higher within the province, increasing by 5.53% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province and overseas markets grew by 3.69% and declined by 9.09%, respectively [3]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company has maintained stable expense ratios, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios at 7.20%, 6.06%, and 1.00%, respectively, showing slight decreases year-on-year [4]. - The report highlights a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns and market confidence through strategic initiatives [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 498.68 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 0.98% [10]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.88 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19.45 times [10].