YILI(SH:600887) Yin He Zheng Quan·2025-11-05 12:56Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company demonstrates resilience through diversified operations and has announced an interim dividend of 0.48 CNY per share [5]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 90.56 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.43 billion CNY, a decrease of 4.1% [5]. - The liquid milk segment faced pressure, while the milk powder business continued to grow significantly [5]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 2.1% in 2025, with net profit growth of 32.5% [5]. Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profitability - Projected revenue for 2024 is 115.78 billion CNY, with a growth rate of -8.24%, followed by 118.26 billion CNY in 2025 with a growth rate of 2.15% [2][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 8.45 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 11.20 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 32.5% [2][6]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase from 33.88% in 2024 to 34.24% in 2027 [2][6]. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - Operating cash flow for 2024 is projected at 21.74 billion CNY, decreasing to 17.38 billion CNY in 2025 [7]. - Total assets are expected to grow from 153.72 billion CNY in 2024 to 163.37 billion CNY in 2027 [6]. - The company’s total liabilities are projected to decrease slightly from 96.71 billion CNY in 2024 to 95.50 billion CNY in 2027 [6]. Key Financial Ratios - The projected P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 20.26 in 2024 to 13.24 in 2027, indicating improved valuation over time [2][6]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 15.9% in 2024 to 20.1% in 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability [6].