Caitong Securities(SH:601108) CAITONG SECURITIES·2025-11-05 13:37Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In Q3 2025, the scale of bond funds and bond holdings decreased significantly, mainly due to the stock - bond seesaw and the negative impact of the new fund sales regulations. Bond funds generally reduced leverage and duration, and under - allocated interest - rate bonds, with medium - and long - term pure bond funds being the most obvious [3]. - Looking ahead, the bond market is expected to recover in Q4, and the scale of bond - type funds is likely to stabilize. With the duration of funds reaching a low point at the end of Q3, there is sufficient room for long - positions. After the possible implementation of the new fund sales regulations, the negative factors will be exhausted, which will drive the bond market, and interest rates are expected to reach a new low before the end of the year [3]. - In Q3, the overall market fund scale increased, but the bond fund scale declined. In terms of holdings, the proportion of stocks in the overall market funds increased, while that of bonds decreased, mainly by under - allocating interest - rate bonds and over - allocating credit bonds, affected by the significant interest rate adjustment in the bond market [3]. - The performance of equity assets was strong, while that of fixed - income assets was under pressure. Short - term bonds outperformed long - term bonds, and hybrid secondary bond funds outperformed hybrid primary bond funds. The equity market rally in Q3 drove up the yields of equity - related assets, and the bond yield curve steepened bearishly, with medium - and long - term bonds performing weaker [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Fund Total Scale Rises, Bond Allocation Scale Drops 1.1 Fund Market Scale: Both Fund Shares and Net Asset Value Increase - As of the end of Q3 2025, there were about 13,300 funds, with a market share of approximately 31.06 trillion shares and a net asset value of about 35.92 trillion yuan. Compared with the end of Q2 2025, the number of funds increased by 3.06%, the market share by 0.53%, and the net asset value by 6.52% [7]. 1.2 Fund Asset Allocation: Bond Allocation Proportion Drops Significantly - By the end of Q3 2025, the total fund asset value increased by 3.95% compared with Q2. The market value of stock holdings increased by 24.81% quarter - on - quarter, that of bond holdings decreased by 5.02%, and that of cash holdings increased by 5.86% [15]. - The proportion of stock assets in fund holdings increased, while that of bonds decreased. At the end of Q3 2025, the proportions of stocks, bonds, cash, and other assets were 23.58%, 52.81%, 13.11%, and 9.85% respectively, with the bond asset proportion decreasing by 4.98 pct quarter - on - quarter [15]. 1.3 Fund Bond - Holding Analysis: Interest - Rate Bond Allocation Proportion Drops Significantly - By the end of Q3 2025, among all funds' bond holdings, interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds decreased by 8.76%, 3.68%, 0.85%, 4.65%, and 6.29% respectively quarter - on - quarter [17]. - The proportion of interest - rate bonds in fund bond holdings decreased the most. At the end of Q3 2025, the proportions of financial bonds, credit bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit in bond holdings increased by 0.18 pct, 0.88 pct, and 0.13 pct respectively, while those of interest - rate bonds and other bonds decreased by 1.16 pct and 0.04 pct respectively [19]. 2. Hybrid Bond Fund Stock - Holding Analysis - The market values of stocks held by hybrid secondary bond funds and hybrid primary bond funds were 201.1 billion yuan and 6.3 billion yuan respectively, with quarter - on - quarter increases of 91.7 billion yuan and 866 million yuan, and growth rates of 84% and 16% respectively [22]. - In terms of the top five industries by market value in the heavy - holding stocks of hybrid secondary bond funds, they were electronics, non - ferrous metals, power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and media. In terms of quarter - on - quarter changes, electronics, non - ferrous metals, power equipment, media, and pharmaceutical biology were the most over - allocated, while public utilities, banks, building decoration, steel, and beauty care were the most under - allocated [22]. 3. Bond Fund Bond - Holding Analysis 3.1 All Bond Funds: Total Bond - Holding Scale Drops, Interest - Rate Bond Allocation Proportion Decreases - By the end of Q3 2025, the total value of bonds held by bond - type funds was about 11.61 trillion yuan, a decrease of 910.1 billion yuan or 7.27% compared with Q2 2025. The market values of interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds decreased by 612.3 billion yuan, 143.4 billion yuan, 39 billion yuan, 73.8 billion yuan, and 41.6 billion yuan respectively [23]. - The proportions of interest - rate bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds decreased. The proportions of interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds in bond investment market value were 42.15%, 20.59%, 30.55%, 2.35%, and 4.36% respectively, with quarter - on - quarter changes of - 1.83 pct, 0.35 pct, 1.91 pct, - 0.42 pct, and - 0.02 pct respectively [23]. - The proportions of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds in all bond funds decreased, while those of enterprise bonds, short - term financing bills, and medium - term notes increased [27]. 3.2 Medium - and Long - Term Pure Bond Funds: Treasury Bond Allocation Proportion Drops - By the end of Q3 2025, the total value of bonds held by medium - and long - term pure bond funds was about 6.88 trillion yuan, a decrease of 11.41% compared with Q2 2025. Interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds decreased by 12.76%, 11.94%, 4.24%, 24.26%, and 31.84% respectively [29]. - The proportion of interest - rate bonds decreased. The proportions of interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds in bond investment market value were 48.62%, 22.20%, 25.15%, 1.64%, and 2.4% respectively, with quarter - on - quarter changes of - 0.75 pct, - 0.13 pct, 1.88 pct, - 0.28 pct, and - 0.72 pct respectively [29]. - The proportion of treasury bonds decreased, while that of policy - bank bonds increased. The proportions of enterprise bonds, short - term financing bills, and medium - term notes increased [32]. 3.3 Short - Term Pure Bond Funds: Financial Bond Allocation Proportion Drops - By the end of Q3 2025, the total value of bonds held by short - term pure bond funds was about 1.003 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.68% compared with Q2 2025. Interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds decreased by 10.50%, 30.67%, 20.47%, 37.44%, and 28.41% respectively [36]. - The proportion of financial bonds decreased. The proportions of interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds in bond investment market value were 15.67%, 16.92%, 64.01%, 2.66%, and 0.74% respectively, with quarter - on - quarter changes of 1.96 pct, - 2.19 pct, 0.98 pct, - 0.67 pct, and - 0.07 pct respectively [37]. - The proportion of treasury bonds decreased, while that of policy - bank bonds increased. The proportions of enterprise bonds and short - term financing bills increased [39]. 4. Fund Heavy - Holding Bond Structure Analysis: Treasury Bond Holding Proportion Rises Continuously - In Q3 2025, the structure of interest - rate bonds in the heavy - holding bonds of bond - type funds remained basically unchanged. The proportions of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds were 11.63%, 1.32%, and 87.05% respectively, with changes of 0.01 pct, - 0.02 pct, and 0.01 pct compared with Q2 2025 [42]. - Bond - type funds increased the allocation ratio of industrial bonds with AA and below ratings and decreased the allocation ratios of industrial bonds with AAA and AA + ratings. The proportions of AAA, AA +, AA, and below AA industrial bonds were 94.71%, 4.40%, 0.75%, and 0.15% respectively [43]. - Bond - type funds increased the allocation ratio of AA + rated urban investment bonds and decreased the allocation ratios of AAA and AA and below rated urban investment bonds. The proportions of AAA, AA +, AA, and below AA urban investment bonds were 60.59%, 31.98%, 7.10%, and 0.32% respectively [44]. - In terms of regions, bond - type funds still mainly held urban investment bonds from Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong at the end of Q3 2025. The holding proportions in Jiangsu, Chongqing and other regions increased quarter - on - quarter, while those in Shandong, Guangdong and other regions decreased [45][46]. 5. Fund Leverage and Duration Analysis: Both Leverage Ratio and Duration Decrease - In Q3, the leverage ratios of medium - and long - term pure bond funds, primary bond funds, and secondary bond funds decreased. The leverage ratios of medium - and long - term pure bond funds, primary bond funds, and secondary bond funds were 117.38%, 112.64%, and 110.82% respectively, with decreases of 2.82 pct, 3.97 pct, and 3.02 pct compared with Q2 2025 [48]. - In Q3, the durations of medium - and long - term pure bond funds, primary bond funds, and secondary bond funds decreased. The durations of medium - and long - term pure bond funds, primary bond funds, and secondary bond funds were 2.96 years, 2.8 years, and 2.92 years respectively, with decreases of 0.8 years, 1.27 years, and 0.9 years compared with Q2 2025 [48]. 6. Fund Performance Analysis: Performance of Products with Equity Exposure Increases Significantly - In Q3 2025, the median quarterly returns of various funds were ranked as follows: stock - type funds (20.67%) > hybrid funds (19.51%) > secondary bond funds (2.6%) > money market funds (0.29%) > short - term pure bond funds (0.23%) > primary bond funds (0.19%) > medium - and long - term pure bonds (- 0.29%) > ChinaBond CDB Bond Total Full Price Index (- 1.18%) > ChinaBond Treasury Bond Total Full Price Index (- 1.84%) [50].