Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-06 03:11Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the precious metals price, in the short term, they are in an adjustment phase. There is expected to be no strong driving force in November. It is advisable to look for mid - term opportunities to buy on dips, and those holding long positions should continue to hold them cautiously. The resistance for London gold is 4050 - 4100, support is 3900, and strong support is in the 3800 - 3850 area. For silver, the resistance is 49.5 - 50, support is 47.5, and strong support is 45.5 [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, precious metals prices rebounded slightly but remained in a narrow - range oscillation, reversing Tuesday's pattern. The US dollar index oscillated, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose, the US stock market rebounded, the European stock market rose, Bitcoin rebounded, crude oil prices fell, and the Southern China Non - ferrous Metals Index oscillated at a low level. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3990.4 per ounce, up 0.75%; the US silver 2512 contract closed at $47.86 per ounce, up 1.2%. The SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 912.26 yuan per gram, down 0.77%; the SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11276 yuan per kilogram, down 0.73%. The US October ADP employment increased by 42,000, the largest increase since July 2025 and higher than the expected 28,000. The September total employment was revised to a decrease of 29,000 from a decrease of 32,000. After the data, precious metals briefly declined and then returned to an upward trend. The US October ISM services PMI rebounded unexpectedly, reaching an eight - month high, and the price - paid index hit a three - year high [2] 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut in December remains uncertain. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged on December 11 is 37.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 62.5%. For January 29, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 25.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 54.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 19.4%. For March 19, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 17.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 45.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 31.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 6.4%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 1038.63 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 16.93 tons to 15150.71 tons. The SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9.4 tons to 656.2 tons, and the SGX silver inventory decreased by 74.9 tons to 830.33 tons as of the week ending October 31 [3] 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday evening and whether the US government shutdown will delay the data release. Regarding events, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report at 20:00 on Thursday. FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will give a speech at 00:00 on Friday; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Harker will speak at the New York Economic Club at 01:00; 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will speak at 05:30; 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Mousalem will have a fireside chat on monetary policy at 06:30; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak at the European Central Bank Money Market Conference at 16:00 [4] 3.4 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Price Table - Provides the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold and silver main - continuous contracts, SGX gold and silver TD, CME gold and silver main contracts, SHFE - TD gold and silver spreads, and the CME gold - silver ratio [6] 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - Shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories, SHFE gold and silver positions, SPDR gold holdings, and SLV silver holdings [13] 3.6 Stock - Bond - Commodity Overview - Presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10Y US Treasury yield, and 10Y US real interest rate [18]