TC Medical(SH:600763) Ping An Securities·2025-11-06 05:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [1][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 22.90 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year adjusted growth of 2.56%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 5.14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year adjusted growth of 3.16% [3]. - For Q3 2025, the revenue is anticipated to be 8.42 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year adjusted growth of 2.34%, while the net profit is expected to reach 1.92 billion yuan, with a year-on-year adjusted growth of 2.15% [3]. - The company has established a dual-brand strategy in Zhejiang Province, which has led to a continuous increase in outpatient visits. The operational structure focuses on a "regional general hospital + branch hospital" model to standardize treatment processes and reduce customer acquisition costs [6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 28.47 billion yuan in 2023 to 38.77 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.1% [5][8]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 500 million yuan in 2023 to 665 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [5][8]. - The gross margin is forecasted to remain stable around 38.5% through 2025, with a slight decline to 37.8% by 2027 [5][8]. - The net profit margin is projected to decrease slightly from 17.6% in 2023 to 17.2% in 2027 [5][8]. Key Financial Ratios - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 13.2% in 2023 to 12.3% by 2027, indicating a gradual decrease in profitability relative to shareholders' equity [5][8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 37.9 in 2023 to 28.5 by 2027, suggesting a potential increase in stock attractiveness as earnings grow [5][8]. - The asset-liability ratio is expected to improve from 25.1% in 2023 to 11.7% by 2027, indicating a strengthening balance sheet [5][8].