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三花智控(002050):费用压降助力业绩提升,公司迎接“机器人”时代

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set to achieve a relative return of over 20% within six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company has reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 24.03 billion yuan (up 16.9% year-on-year) and net profit at 3.24 billion yuan (up 40.9% year-on-year) [1]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing global low-carbon and energy-saving policies, particularly in the refrigeration components business, which is expected to maintain stable growth in exports [2]. - The implementation of cost-reduction measures has led to improved profitability, with a net profit margin of 14.8% in Q3 2025, reflecting a 3.2 percentage point increase [3]. Business Segmentation Summary - Refrigeration Components Business: The business is driven by global low-carbon policies and expanding overseas demand, with expectations for continued stable growth in air conditioning component exports. The company is increasing investments to adapt to future product demand changes [2]. - Automotive Parts Business: The company has improved its operational status by adjusting the pace of previous personnel and equipment investments [2]. - Robotics Business: The establishment of a robotics division in 2025 and ongoing construction of overseas production bases are expected to support future capacity expansion [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 28.0% and a net profit margin of 14.8%, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency [3]. - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 4.28 billion yuan, 4.94 billion yuan, and 5.79 billion yuan respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment based on better-than-expected growth in the first three quarters [4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.02 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 45.82x [5].