三角防务（300775）：2025Q3业绩符合市场预期，全年业绩有望持续高增

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its performance in the market [7]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 results that met market expectations, with a revenue of 1.247 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.51%, and a net profit of 375 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.64% [7]. - The significant growth in Q3 2025 revenue and profit is attributed to a low base from Q3 2024 and an increase in product deliveries [7]. - The company is expected to continue its performance recovery due to sustained downstream demand and the rollout of orders from the 14th Five-Year Plan [7]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 41.81%, an increase of 45.58 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [7]. - The company is expanding its production capacity and product categories, which is expected to drive future growth [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 2.001 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.9% [6]. - The net profit for 2025 is projected to be 500 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.5% [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 0.91 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 28 [6]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 42.7% for 2025, down from a previous estimate of 47.7% [7]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is a core supplier of aerospace forgings, with a strong product lineup supporting various military aircraft [7]. - Ongoing projects and expansions in high-end forging capabilities are expected to enhance the company's market position and profitability [7]. - The company’s valuation is currently below that of comparable firms in the aerospace forging sector, suggesting potential for upward adjustment as performance improves [7].