OCT(SZ:000069) Haitong Securities International·2025-11-06 07:55Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, with a target price of 2.92 RMB based on a 0.5x price-to-book (PB) valuation method [4][13][16]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a significant decline in revenue and an increase in losses, primarily due to reduced project revenue, lower gross profit margins, higher expenses, increased losses from joint ventures, and higher impairment provisions [4][14]. - The report highlights a potential for asset price recovery due to ongoing policy support and a gradual bottoming out of asset prices [4]. Financial Summary - For 2023A, total revenue is projected at 55,744 million RMB, with a year-over-year decline of 27.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be -6,492 million RMB, reflecting a 40.5% increase in losses compared to the previous year [3][5]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 is reported at 8.22%, down 4.65 percentage points year-over-year, while the expense ratio has increased to 27.91%, up 10.69 percentage points year-over-year [4][7]. - The company’s total buildable land reserve is reported at 23.14 million square meters, with a remaining developable area of 10.21 million square meters as of Q3 2025 [15]. Sales and Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 17.03 billion RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 41.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -4.37 billion RMB, down 85.76% year-over-year [4][14]. - Contract sales area for the first nine months of 2025 is reported at 893,000 square meters, a decrease of 19% year-over-year, with a sales amount of 13.25 billion RMB, down 22% year-over-year [15]. Shareholder Actions - The company’s parent group has initiated a share buyback plan to enhance investor confidence, committing to purchase shares worth between 111 million RMB and 220 million RMB over a six-month period starting July 15, 2025 [4][16].