SHCI(SH:601225) Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-11-06 08:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance has shown recovery driven by coal and electricity operations, with a focus on integrated operations and coal price elasticity [5] - The company has a strong position in the industry due to its quality coal resources, cost advantages, and stable dividends, with significant earnings elasticity expected during coal price recovery [5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 118.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.71 billion yuan, down 27.2% year-on-year [7] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 40.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10.0%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.0% [7] - The coal production for the first three quarters was 130.37 million tons, up 2.0% year-on-year, while coal sales were 189.20 million tons, up 0.4% year-on-year [7] - The average revenue per ton of coal for the first three quarters was 540.2 yuan, down 13.0% year-on-year, but Q3 saw a recovery in coal prices [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to have net profits attributable to shareholders of 17.10 billion yuan, 18.01 billion yuan, and 18.55 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -23.6%, +5.3%, and +3.0% [6] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 13.6, 12.9, and 12.5 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] - The expected dividend yields for 2025-2027 are 4.3%, 4.5%, and 4.7% based on the 2024 dividend payout ratio of 58.5% [6]