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极米科技(688696):新业务培育期盈利能力承压,期待Q4迎来业绩拐点

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is in a new business cultivation period with profitability under pressure, but an inflection point in performance is expected in Q4 [5] - The main business of home projection is operating steadily, with improvements in domestic sales and a potential recovery in overseas sales [6] - New business segments such as automotive and commercial are progressing steadily, with expectations for a reduction in losses in Q4 [6] - The gross profit margin has improved significantly year-on-year, and the expense ratio continues to optimize [6] - The company is projected to experience substantial growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with expected net profits of 258 million, 509 million, and 651 million yuan respectively [5][6] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is forecasted at 3,557 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.77%, followed by a recovery in 2024 with a forecast of 3,405 million yuan [5] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 30.6%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 4.08% in 2024 to 15.97% in 2027 [5][7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 67.98 in 2024 to 12.55 in 2027, indicating improved valuation over time [5][7]