wanhua(SH:600309) Orient Securities·2025-11-06 08:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry, indicating a favorable outlook for future performance [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that after macroeconomic improvements, products closely related to demand in Europe and the United States are expected to benefit first, followed by products related to emerging markets. MDI and PVC are identified as having high certainty for recovery [3][52]. - The acquisition of OxyChem by Berkshire Hathaway is seen as a significant indicator of recovery potential in the chemical sector, particularly in chlor-alkali products like PVC [7][10]. Summary by Sections 1. U.S. Enters Rate Cut Cycle Benefiting Real Estate Recovery - The U.S. chlor-alkali chemical sector is currently at a cyclical low, with PVC prices declining since 2022, affecting profitability [11][20]. - The expectation of further rate cuts in the U.S. is anticipated to stimulate real estate demand, which is closely linked to chlor-alkali products [20][21]. 2. European and American Demand Products Expected to Recover First - The report notes that the demand for petrochemical and chemical products is expected to improve as monetary policies ease in the U.S. and Europe, which will likely stimulate real demand recovery [23][24]. - MDI is highlighted as a product that will likely see early recovery due to its favorable market position and the competitive advantage of companies like Wanhua Chemical [24][30]. 3. Long-term Growth from Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are expected to drive long-term demand growth for chemical products, particularly due to initiatives like China's Belt and Road and the competitive dynamics among major powers [47][50]. - The report indicates that the supply of PVC is expected to stagnate, while demand from emerging markets continues to grow, particularly from countries like India and Vietnam [49][50]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that MDI and PVC are the most promising products for investment, with specific companies recommended for MDI (Wanhua Chemical) and several for PVC [3][52].