Baosteelpackage(SH:601968) Guotou Securities·2025-11-06 09:44Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" investment rating for Baosteel Packaging, with a target price of 6.42 CNY for 2026 [5][6]. Core Views - Baosteel Packaging has shown solid performance in Q3 2025, with revenue of 2.306 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.78%, and a net profit of 73 million CNY, up 15.15% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company is expanding its overseas capacity and optimizing its product structure, which is expected to enhance its core competitiveness and operational efficiency [2][5]. - Despite a short-term pressure on gross margins due to rising raw material prices, the net profit margin has shown a positive trend, indicating potential for profitability recovery as industry competition improves [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, Baosteel Packaging achieved a revenue of 6.581 billion CNY, a 6.83% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 176 million CNY, up 11.97% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 7.43%, down 0.93 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 2.91%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - The company expects revenues of 8.460 billion CNY, 9.667 billion CNY, and 10.308 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 196 million CNY, 334 million CNY, and 488 million CNY [5][10]. Market Position and Strategy - Baosteel Packaging is actively pursuing projects in Southeast Asia, including Cambodia and Vietnam, to strengthen its market position in the region [2]. - The company is committed to a "Four Modernizations" development direction and "Four Possessions" operational principles to enhance management efficiency and promote differentiated innovative products [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects a PE ratio of 35.9X for 2025, decreasing to 14.4X by 2027, indicating an expected improvement in valuation as earnings grow [5][10]. - The estimated PB ratio for 2026 is 1.70X, reflecting the company's anticipated growth trajectory [5].