SDIC FENGLE(SZ:000713) Guoxin Securities·2025-11-06 14:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guotou Fengle (000713.SZ) is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The short-term industry outlook is bleak, with revenue and profit declining year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.526 billion yuan, down 11.33% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -91 million yuan, down 27.67% year-on-year [8][3] - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to an oversupply in the corn seed industry and intensified market competition, alongside challenges in the company's agricultural chemical business [8][3] - The company has actively reduced seed production area, leading to a significant improvement in cash flow, with operating cash flow turning positive at 137 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [17][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, sales expenses were 95 million yuan, down 6.81% year-on-year, with a sales expense ratio of 6.26% (up 0.30 percentage points). Management expenses were 56 million yuan, down 2.33%, with a management expense ratio of 5.83% (up 0.53 percentage points). R&D expenses were 70 million yuan, down 19.81%, with a R&D expense ratio of 4.05% (down 0.39 percentage points) [2][13] - The gross margin decreased by 1.14 percentage points to 9.16%, and the net margin fell by 1.64 percentage points to -6.41% due to rising expense ratios [2][13] Inventory and Cash Flow - As of July 31, 2025, the book value of corn seed inventory was 486 million yuan, up 107.69% year-on-year, while rice seed inventory was 49 million yuan, down 3.88% [17] - The inventory turnover days increased by 40% year-on-year to 193 days [17] Sales and Contracts - For the 2024/2025 operating year, total seed revenue was 1.044 billion yuan, up 22.59% year-on-year, with total sales volume at 93.1217 million kilograms, up 40.08% year-on-year [3] - The company’s contract liabilities at the end of Q3 2025 were 691 million yuan, remaining stable year-on-year, indicating resilience in new season seed sales [3] Profit Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been revised down to 76 million yuan and 117 million yuan, respectively, from previous estimates of 130 million yuan and 185 million yuan [19] - The forecast for 2027 net profit is 144 million yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.12, 0.19, and 0.23 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [19]