TECON(SZ:002100) Guoxin Securities·2025-11-06 14:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][21]. Core Views - The company has maintained positive net profit in Q3 2025 despite a year-on-year decline in net profit due to a significant drop in pig prices. The company reported a revenue of 47.64 billion yuan in Q3 2025, down 6.49% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.73 billion yuan, down 74.58% year-on-year [2][10]. - The company is pursuing an acquisition of a quality pig farming enterprise, Qiangdu Livestock, which is expected to strengthen its pig farming capabilities. The acquisition involves purchasing 51% of Qiangdu Livestock's shares for cash, and the company has a history of successful collaboration with Qiangdu [3]. - The company's feed and animal health businesses are performing steadily, and its subsidiary, Tiankang Pharmaceutical, is planning to go public. The company aims to achieve a feed production and sales volume of 2.9 million tons and 2.4 billion milliliters of animal vaccines in 2025 [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 136.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.12 billion yuan, down 27.2% year-on-year. The cumulative sales of pigs reached 2.2823 million heads, an increase of 6.46% year-on-year, but the sales revenue decreased by 8.26% to 3.342 billion yuan [2][10]. - The company's self-breeding cost has improved, dropping to 12.55 yuan per kilogram, with a survival rate of 96.5% for fattening pigs [2][10]. - The company has a comprehensive "cluster-style" industrial chain layout, which is expected to further reduce costs as self-breeding capacity expands and utilization rates improve [21]. Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 750 million, 623 million, and 574 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.55, 0.46, and 0.42 yuan. The current PE ratios are projected to be 14, 17, and 19 times [5][21].