航运日报：下半月实际揽货价格逐步报出，运价中枢或能再度小幅抬升-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: The 12 - contract is expected to be oscillating upward [7] - Arbitrage: None at present [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The actual freight - booking prices in the second half of the month are gradually being reported, and the freight rate center may rise slightly again [1] - The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the rhythm, and the overall valuation support is constantly rising. Shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep freight rates at a relatively high level for the next - year long - term agreement negotiation [4] - The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation gap, but it is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations [5] - The reduction of the 10% "fentanyl tariff" is conducive to promoting the recovery of Sino - US trade, which will drive the demand on the US route to pick up and support the European route prices to some extent [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of November 6, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 69,438.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 47,681.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1601.00, 1178.00, 1414.20, 1484.00, 1140.00, and 1848.20 respectively [5] 3.2 Spot Prices - Online quotes of different shipping companies show price increases in the second half of November and December. For example, HPL's 11 - month second - half - month shipping schedule quote increased from 1185/1935 in the first half of November to 1935/3135, and the December first - half - month shipping schedule quote is 1935/3135 [1] - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on October 31 was 1344 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2647 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3438 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on November 3 was 1208.71 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1267.15 points [5] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In November, the monthly average weekly capacity from China to European base ports was 286,000 TEU, and in December, it was 322,900 TEU. There were 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN in November and 6 TBNs in December [3] - As of October 31, 2025, 218 container ships with a total capacity of 1.784 million TEU had been delivered in 2025. Among them, 67 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU (total 1.008 million TEU) and 11 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU (total 236,320 TEU) were delivered [6] 3.4 Supply Chain - Geopolitical factors: The Israeli Defense Minister instructed the Israeli army to divide the area near the Israeli - Egyptian border into a closed military zone and adjust the rules of engagement [2] - The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. The US will also suspend the implementation of its 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. In response, China will also suspend its counter - measures against the US for one year [3] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The reduction of the 10% fentanyl tariff is helpful for the recovery of Sino - US trade, which will drive the demand on the US route to pick up and support the European route prices to some extent [3] - The shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep the freight rates at a relatively high level in the fourth quarter to prepare for the next - year long - term agreement negotiation [4]