JAC(SH:600418) Huachuang Securities·2025-11-07 03:48Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Jianghuai Automobile (600418) [1] Core Views - Jianghuai Automobile's revenue for Q3 2025 reached 11.5 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20% [1] - The company reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 660 million yuan for Q3 2025, a decrease of 990 million yuan year-on-year and a decrease of 110 million yuan quarter-on-quarter [1] - The launch of the Zun Jie S800 model has begun contributing to revenue and gross profit, with significant growth in both metrics [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 45.6 billion, 69.2 billion, and 85.4 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 52%, and 23% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -1.54 billion, 2.06 billion, and 5.41 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a significant turnaround in profitability [7] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 13.9%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year and 6.0 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [7] Sales and Production Insights - The Zun Jie S800 has accumulated over 15,000 pre-orders within four months of its launch, indicating strong demand [7] - The company aims to ramp up production capacity to achieve a monthly output of 4,000 units by the end of 2025 [7] - The report anticipates that the Zun Jie S800 will achieve stable monthly sales of 2,000 units in the following year [7] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The Zun Jie brand is expected to position Jianghuai as a high-return-on-equity (ROE) and competitive player in the luxury car market, benefiting from cost advantages and a favorable market structure [7] - The luxury car segment is characterized by high profitability, with potential net margins significantly exceeding those of competitors like Porsche [7] Valuation and Target Price - The target price for Jianghuai Automobile is set at 70.02 yuan, representing a potential upside of 45% from the current price of 48.16 yuan [3] - Long-term projections estimate the company's market value could reach 299.3 billion yuan, indicating a potential increase of 1.9 times [7]