SDBH(SH:600966) Changjiang Securities·2025-11-07 08:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.5 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 120 million yuan, down 19% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 90 million yuan, down 26% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the revenue was 4.9 billion yuan, up 4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 30 million yuan, up 73% year-on-year, and a net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 30 million yuan, up 193% year-on-year [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's gross margin, net profit margin, and net profit margin after deducting non-recurring gains and losses decreased by 0.5, increased by 0.3, and increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, respectively. The sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios increased by 0.1, 0.2, -0.9, and -0.5 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [2][5]. Market Dynamics - The revenue growth in Q3 2025 is primarily attributed to a year-on-year increase in sales volume, continuing the trend from the first half of the year. The company produced 2.432 million tons of mechanical paper in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.39%, and sold 2.3501 million tons, an increase of 8.77% year-on-year. The company has set a target of no less than 4.7 million tons in total paper product sales for 2025, with half of this target achieved in the first half of the year [11]. Cost Management - The cost of raw materials, particularly wood pulp, decreased quarter-on-quarter, contributing to the improvement in net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses in Q3 2025. The price of white cardboard decreased by 95 yuan per ton, and the price of double glue paper decreased by 338 yuan per ton. The company has also implemented cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures, such as reducing wastewater treatment costs [11]. Future Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to be a seasonal peak due to demand for cultural paper and packaging paper during holidays. The prices of packaging paper have been increasing, while the performance of cultural paper remains weaker than seasonal expectations. However, paper prices are anticipated to recover moderately, which could improve profitability [11]. Long-term Perspective - In the medium to long term, the company is expected to benefit from a reduction in new production capacity in the paper industry, which has been oversupplied in recent years. The industry is anticipated to enter an upward cycle starting in 2026. The company aims to continue growing sales and developing differentiated products, with overseas revenue expected to maintain a rapid growth trend [11].