SDIC Power(SH:600886) Changjiang Securities·2025-11-07 09:11Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company's electricity generation volume decreased by 14.42% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with average on-grid electricity price dropping by approximately 0.003 yuan/kWh [2][6]. - The company reported a revenue of 14.876 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a decrease of 13.98% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.723 billion yuan, down 3.94% year-on-year [2][6]. - The report highlights that despite the pressure on both electricity volume and price, the continuous improvement in fuel costs helped mitigate some of the negative impacts [12]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 14.876 billion yuan, a decline of 13.98% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.723 billion yuan, down 3.94% year-on-year [2][6]. - The company's operating costs were 7.949 billion yuan, a reduction of 21.51% year-on-year, which helped alleviate the pressure from declining volume and price [12]. Electricity Generation - The total electricity generation was 47.891 billion kWh, a decrease of 14.42% year-on-year, with hydropower generation down by 14.80% and thermal power generation down by 18.50% [12]. - The report notes that the company’s hydropower generation was significantly affected by reduced water inflow in the Yalong River basin and the upper reaches of the Yellow River [12]. Cost Management - The average coal price for Q3 2025 was 672.46 yuan/ton, down 175.63 yuan/ton year-on-year, contributing to a decrease in operating costs [12]. - The company recorded an investment income of 291 million yuan, a decrease of approximately 190 million yuan compared to the same period last year [12]. Future Outlook - The Yalong River basin has a significant potential for hydropower development, with an installed capacity of approximately 30 million kW, indicating a positive long-term growth outlook [12]. - The report anticipates that the rainfall in Sichuan province has been above average, which could lead to improved water inflow and a more favorable outlook for the remainder of the year [12]. Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be 0.87 yuan, 0.92 yuan, and 0.98 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16.68, 15.67, and 14.70 [12].