关注央行买债规模，资金预期延续平稳：——11月流动性月报-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the payment pressure may increase compared to October, but with the central bank's active support, the risk of tightened funds is limited. The DR007 is expected to fluctuate between 1.4 - 1.5%. [3][4][66] - The central bank has restarted bond - buying, and considering the current operation ideas of maintaining sufficient liquidity, the funds are expected to remain stable. [4][66] 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1 10 - Month Review of Fundamentals and Liquidity: Active Early - Season Investment, Stable Central Level 3.1.1 Review of Fundamentals: Narrow - Range Fluctuation of Funds - In October 2025, the overnight fund fluctuation range narrowed compared to the previous month, with the overnight fund fluctuating around 1.31% at the beginning of the month and reaching a maximum of 1.47% in the late month. The 7D fund fluctuation range widened, fluctuating around 1.43% from the beginning to the middle of the month and reaching a maximum of 1.58% at the end of the month. There was no inversion between overnight and 7D funds this month. [10][11] - At the beginning of the month, the central bank conducted a 3M repurchase reverse repurchase of 1.1 trillion yuan to ease the pressure of large - scale reverse repurchase maturities. In the middle of the month, with limited payment pressure, the central bank continued to support, and the fund prices remained stable. At the end of the month, affected by the tax period and other factors, the funds faced pressure, but the MLF actively operated and bond - buying was restarted, and the liquidity gradually stabilized. [11] - In terms of fund stratification, the stratification pressure widened and then slightly narrowed in October, and the spread was at a seasonal low. In terms of fund volatility, the volatility of overnight and 7D funds was at a seasonal low. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase in October increased slightly compared to the previous month, with a monthly total of around 131 trillion yuan. [16][19][20] - In terms of lending behavior, the net lending scale of state - owned banks first increased and then decreased, the net lending of joint - stock banks was at a seasonal low, and the net lending of money market funds fluctuated greatly. [23] 3.1.2 Review of Liquidity: Low Gap Pressure in October, Active Central Bank Investment - Liquidity Aggregate: In October, the base money decreased by about 1.1 trillion yuan. After considering factors such as reserve release and cash withdrawal, the excess reserve at the end of the month decreased by about 90 billion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio was about 1.4%, and the narrow - sense excess reserve level after deducting reverse repurchase was about 0.66%, showing obvious improvement. [2][31] - Open - Market Operations: In October, the central bank's open - market operations recovered steadily. The reverse repurchase was net - recovered by 59.53 billion yuan, the MLF was net - invested by 20 billion yuan, the pledged reverse repurchase was net - invested by 40 billion yuan, and the central bank net - bought 2 billion yuan of national bonds at the end of the month. The 1 - month treasury deposit was 12 billion yuan, and 15 billion yuan matured. [36][38][40] 3.2 October Monetary Policy Tracking: Resumption of National Bond Trading, Construction of a Comprehensive Macro - Prudential Management System - In October 2025, the central bank announced the resumption of open - market national bond trading and the construction of a scientific and stable monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro - prudential management system. The central bank affirmed the reasonable operating range of the bond market at 1.75 - 1.85% and emphasized the improvement of the macro - prudential management system and the prevention and disposal mechanism of systematic financial risks. [2][43] - The central bank's monetary policy actions in October included: learning the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee to build a scientific and stable monetary policy system; reporting on the financial work situation and affirming the operating range of the 10 - year national bond; announcing the resumption of open - market national bond trading at the Financial Street Forum; and emphasizing the improvement of the macro - prudential management system on multiple occasions. [48][49][50] 3.3 November Gap Forecast: Restart of Bond - Buying, Continued Loose Trend 3.3.1 Rigid Gap: Small Consumption of Excess Reserves by Reserve Requirements, Large Maturity of MLF - In November, the increase in general deposits may consume about 12 billion yuan of excess reserves. The MLF matures at 90 billion yuan, and the pledged reverse repurchase matures at 1 trillion yuan (70 billion yuan for 3M and 30 billion yuan for 6M), with the 3M term renewed for 70 billion yuan on November 5th. [55] 3.3.2 Exogenous Shocks: Cash Withdrawal and Non - Financial Institution Deposits Consume Liquidity at the End of the Year - In November, cash withdrawal may consume about 15 billion yuan of excess reserves, and non - financial institution deposits may consume about 3 billion yuan of excess reserves. [60] 3.3.3 Fiscal Factors: Accelerated Year - End Expenditure, Possible Decrease in Government Deposits - In November, considering factors such as tax payments, government bond issuance, and fiscal expenditures, government deposits may release about 13 billion yuan of liquidity. [61] 3.3.4 Comprehensive Judgment: Central Bank Restarts Bond - Buying, Funds in November May Remain Stable - In November, the monthly liquidity gap may be around 2 trillion yuan, and the overall fund gap pressure may be at a seasonal high. However, with the central bank's bond - buying restart and the maintenance of sufficient liquidity, the DR007 is expected to fluctuate between 1.4 - 1.5%. [3][66] - The central bank may use national bond trading to partially replace MLF and pledged reverse repurchase. The central bank's current bond - holding ratio in the national bond market is about 6%, and there is still room for further bond - buying. Attention should be paid to the scale and rhythm of bond - buying. [4][70]