GCL TECH(HK:03800) Tianfeng Securities·2025-11-08 12:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][15]. Core Insights - The company's photovoltaic materials segment achieved an unaudited profit of approximately RMB 9.6 billion in Q3 2025, compared to an unaudited loss of RMB 18.1 billion in the same period last year, marking a significant turnaround [1]. - The average external selling price of granular silicon in Q3 2025 was RMB 42.12 per kg, reflecting a 27.9% increase from Q2 2025, while the average production cash cost decreased by 4.5% to RMB 24.16 per kg [2]. - The tightening of energy consumption standards for polysilicon production is expected to facilitate capacity clearance and industry upgrades, with the company’s granular silicon production meeting the new standards [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The photovoltaic materials business reported an adjusted EBITDA of approximately RMB 14.1 billion in Q3 2025, a recovery from an adjusted EBITDA loss of RMB 5.71 billion in the same quarter last year [1][2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to RMB 123.9 billion, RMB 169.5 billion, and RMB 214.2 billion respectively, with net profits projected at RMB -9.9 billion, RMB 13.8 billion, and RMB 25.6 billion [5]. Market Position - The company’s market share for granular silicon reached 24.32% in the first half of 2025, a significant increase from 14.58% in 2024, driven by continuous improvements in product quality and customer adhesion [4]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the expected price recovery in the granular silicon market, with further improvements anticipated in Q4 2025 [5]. Industry Trends - The new energy consumption standards for polysilicon production are expected to significantly tighten industry regulations, promoting the exit of less efficient producers and benefiting companies like this one that meet the new criteria [3][4].