Anjoy food(SH:603345) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-11-08 12:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The company has shown a turning point in performance with a positive contribution from the consolidation of Dingwei Thai, leading to a recovery in its main business [1][5] - The company achieved a revenue of 11.37 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.95 billion yuan, down 9.3% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.77 billion yuan, an increase of 6.6%, with Dingwei Thai contributing 0.16 billion yuan [1] Revenue Breakdown - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue from various product categories was as follows: - Frozen prepared foods: 5.67 billion yuan (+0.7%) - Frozen dishes: 3.64 billion yuan (+9.2%) - Frozen noodles and rice products: 1.73 billion yuan (-5.4%) - Agricultural products and others: 0.29 billion yuan (+8.2%) - Bakery products: 0.03 billion yuan (not comparable) - Other foods: 0.01 billion yuan (-39.0%) [2] - In Q3 2025, revenue from these categories was: - Frozen prepared foods: 1.91 billion yuan (+6.4%) - Frozen dishes: 1.23 billion yuan (+8.8%) - Frozen noodles and rice products: 0.48 billion yuan (-9.1%) - Agricultural products and others: 0.11 billion yuan (+38.8%) - Bakery products: 0.03 billion yuan (not comparable) - Other foods: 0.01 billion yuan (+632.4%) [2] Sales Model Analysis - Revenue by sales model for the first three quarters of 2025 was: - Distributors: 9.00 billion yuan (-1.0%) - Direct sales: 0.87 billion yuan (+23.5%) - New retail and e-commerce: 0.85 billion yuan (+25.9%) - Supermarkets: 0.64 billion yuan (+6.7%) [3] - In Q3 2025, revenue by sales model was: - Distributors: 2.96 billion yuan (-0.6%) - Direct sales: 0.32 billion yuan (+68.1%) - New retail and e-commerce: 0.27 billion yuan (+38.1%) - Supermarkets: 0.22 billion yuan (+28.1%) [3] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 20.3%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points, while the net margin was 8.4%, down 1.2 percentage points [4] - In Q3 2025, the gross margin improved slightly to 20.0% (+0.1 percentage points), and the net margin increased to 7.3% (+0.3 percentage points) [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to see a positive trend in revenue for Q4 and 2026, with projected revenues of 15.78 billion yuan, 16.94 billion yuan, and 18.16 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 4.4%, 7.3%, and 7.2% [5] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is 1.39 billion yuan, 1.57 billion yuan, and 1.73 billion yuan, with a projected decline of 6.5% in 2025 followed by growth of 12.7% and 10.6% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [5]