Guosen Securities(SZ:002736) Guoxin Securities·2025-11-09 05:27Group 1: Dollar Index Insights - The recent rise in the dollar index is primarily driven by U.S. internal policy expectations and economic data support, with the Fed's rate cut expectations dropping from 82% to 67% for December[1] - October ADP private sector employment increased by 42,000, exceeding the market expectation of 30,000, indicating a stable job market[1] - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI index also surpassed expectations, suggesting continued economic strength in the U.S.[1] Group 2: Liquidity and Risk Factors - U.S. government shutdown has led to a significant liquidity squeeze, with the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance rising from $800 billion to $1 trillion, while bank reserves fell to a record low of $2.8 trillion[1] - The overnight secured funding rate (SOFR) surged to 4.22%, exceeding the policy rate range of 3.75%-4.0%[1] - Geopolitical uncertainties in non-U.S. economies, such as the weakening of the British pound and euro, have further strengthened the dollar's relative position[1] Group 3: Market Performance Overview - For the week of November 1 to November 8, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.83%, while the S&P 500 fell by 1.63%[2] - The dollar index decreased by 0.19%, and the offshore RMB depreciated by 0.04% during the same period[2] - Commodity prices saw declines, with WTI crude oil down by 2.02% and SHFE rebar down by 2.27%[2] Group 4: Inventory and Positioning - Recent oil inventory levels reached 44.355 million tons, increasing by 2.78 million tons from the previous week[3] - The latest data shows a rise in dollar long positions to 14,032 contracts, up by 1,541 contracts, while short positions decreased to 24,376 contracts[3] - Gold ETF holdings increased to 3,350 million ounces, reflecting a rise of 90,000 ounces[3]