煤焦周度观点-20251109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coal and coke market is experiencing high - level oscillations supported by supply narratives. The recent acceleration in the decline of downstream steel mill开工 has reignited market concerns about negative feedback, potentially suppressing the further upward movement of raw material prices. Additionally, the relatively quiet policy front and the divergence in macro - risk appetites at home and abroad have restricted the further upward breakthrough of the valuation of domestic risk assets to some extent [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Weekly Outlook - Supply: In some northern main production areas, production recovery has fallen short of expectations due to factors such as environmental protection, leading to a slight week - on - week decline in the overall domestic capacity utilization rate. The increase in Mongolian coal vehicle traffic has driven a week - on - week rise in port inventory [3] - Demand: Coking enterprises have achieved a certain amount of inventory replenishment, with a significant week - on - week increase in the raw material inventory of independent coking enterprises. The continuous decline in the blast furnace operation rate of steel mills has intensified concerns about negative feedback [4] - Macro: Recently, the policy front has been relatively quiet, and there has been a divergence in macro - risk appetites at home and abroad, which has restricted the further upward breakthrough of the valuation of domestic risk assets to some extent [4] 3.2 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Fundamental Changes | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 848.39 (- 3.42); FW clean coal 432.95 (- 1.97); Independent coking plant daily average 63.59 (- 1.0); Steel mill and coking enterprise daily average 46.09 (- 0.12) | | | Demand | Iron ore output 234.22 (- 2.14) | Iron ore output 234.22 (- 2.14) | | Inventory | MS total inventory + 11.3; Mine raw coal - 12.4; Mine clean coal + 1.1; Independent coking - 9.0; Independent coking + 17.5; Steel mill - 2.4; Steel mill coking - 9.0; Port - 1.6; Port + 14.1; FW port + 22.9 | | | Profit | Commodity coal 569 (+ 34) | Average coking enterprise profit - 22 (+ 10) | | Warehouse Receipt | Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1362 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1718 | [6] 3.3 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - Supply - Weekly: Data on the start - up rate of 523 sample mines, FW raw coal production, and daily average clean coal production of 523 sample mines are presented [8] - Monthly: Data on the production of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal are provided [11] - Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance: Data on the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu, Mandula, and Ceke ports, as well as the total customs clearance volume of the three ports, are shown [13][16][17][19] - Inventory - Pit - mouth: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample mines increased by 4.15 tons week - on - week to 136.13 tons, while the clean coal inventory decreased by 0.77 tons week - on - week to 80.35 tons [24] - Port: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 304.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.12 tons [26] - Coking Plant: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in independent coking enterprises are provided, including regional and capacity - segmented data [29][31][33] - Steel Mill: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises and their sample coking plants are presented, including regional data [34] 3.4 Coke Fundamental Data - Supply - Capacity Utilization - Coking Plant: Data on the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises, including full - sample and 230 - enterprise data, as well as data segmented by capacity and region, are provided [37] - Steel Mill: Data on the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises are shown [39] - Output - Coking Plant: Data on the daily average output of coke in independent coking enterprises, including full - sample and 230 - enterprise data, are provided [41] - Steel Mill: Data on the daily average output of coke in 247 steel enterprises are shown [43] - Inventory - Coking Plant: Data on the inventory of coke in independent coking enterprises, including full - sample and 230 - enterprise data, are provided [45] - Steel Mill: Data on the inventory and average available days of coke in 247 steel enterprise sample coking plants, including regional data, are presented [46][48][49] - Full - sample Aggregate: Data on the total coke inventory and supply - demand difference are provided [51][53] - Demand - Pig Iron: Data on the daily average output of pig iron in 247 steel enterprises are presented [53] - Profit: Data on the spot - month contract profit of coke per ton, the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises, and the price of metallurgical coke are provided [57][58] 3.5 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - Coking Coal Futures: The futures market conditions of coking coal 2601 and coking coal 2605, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest, are presented [61] - Coke Futures: The futures market conditions of coke 2601 and coke 2605, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest, are presented [63] - Coal and Coke Calendar Spread: Data on the spread between JM2601 and JM2605, and between J2601 and J2605 are provided [66] - Coal and Coke Spot: Data on the spot prices of coking coal and coke, including vehicle - board prices of different types of coking coal and the prices of different grades of metallurgical coke, are presented [69] - Coal and Coke Basis: The JM basis has declined as the spot price reached a high level [71]