科思股份（300856）：防晒主业承压筑底，关注需求回暖催化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating that it is expected to outperform the market benchmark by over 20% in the next 6-12 months [6][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.116 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 39.93%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 78 million yuan, down 84.84% year-on-year [1][6]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to two main factors: a slowdown in demand growth for sunscreen products and intensified competition leading to a decrease in market prices, resulting in a "double whammy" of volume and price pressure [1][2]. - The company is actively transforming its product structure and growth drivers, focusing on personal care new products such as amino acid surfactants and carbomers, which are expected to form a second growth curve [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 395 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.82%, and a net profit of 13 million yuan, down 86.36% year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 25.26%, a decrease of 12.11 percentage points year-on-year, with a net margin of 2.67%, down 17.76 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company's performance improvement in the short term is highly dependent on the recovery of downstream demand and the progress of inventory destocking [3]. - If the terminal sunscreen market demand rebounds in Q4, along with a reduction in customer inventory to reasonable levels, the shipment volume and prices of sunscreen agents are expected to stabilize, leading to marginal improvements in revenue and gross margin [3]. Key Financial Metrics - Projected revenues for 2025 are estimated at 1.534 billion yuan, with a significant decline of 32.6% year-on-year, followed by a recovery in 2026 and 2027 [4][10]. - The estimated EPS for 2025 is 0.25 yuan, with a projected P/E ratio of 55.3 [4][10].