SINOLINK SECURITIES(SH:600109) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-11-09 12:06Group 1: U.S. Economic Impact - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has created a data vacuum, making it difficult to confirm or refute market views on the U.S. economy[2] - Key economic indicators such as U.S. inventory and import data are only updated until July, while personal consumption data is available only until August[2] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that if the shutdown continues, it could impact Q4 GDP growth by up to 2 percentage points[14] Group 2: China-U.S. Trade Dynamics - In October, China's exports to the U.S. fell by 25.1% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 1.8 percentage points compared to previous months[4] - Exports of intermediate goods from China to the U.S. showed resilience, with a year-on-year decline of 18.5% in September, better than the 24.1% drop in consumer goods[4] - Taiwan's exports to the U.S. surged by 49.7% in October, driven by a 138.2% increase in information and communication products[5] Group 3: Global Export Trends - Vietnam's exports to the U.S. decreased from a year-on-year growth of 38.2% in September to 17.5% in October, with a 15.2% drop in mobile phone exports[6] - Mexico's automotive production and exports fell by 4% and 5.5% respectively in October due to U.S. tariffs[6] - South Korea's overall exports to the U.S. declined by 15.1% in October, excluding semiconductors[6] Group 4: Consumer Confidence and Employment - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index dropped to 50.3 in November, the lowest since June 2022[15] - The current economic conditions index fell by 6.3 points to 52.3, while the consumer expectations index hit a six-month low at 49[15] - Job vacancies in the U.S. decreased by 2.2 percentage points from September, indicating pressure on consumer spending[15]