免税行业：政策相继落地，基本面环比改善

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Accumulate" [5] Core Viewpoints - The duty-free industry is experiencing a positive turnaround in fundamentals, with high-frequency data for Hainan's offshore duty-free sales showing improvement in Q3 2025, and a stable outlook for Q4 2025 [1][3] - Recent policy implementations have clarified the direction for the Hainan Free Trade Port, with significant announcements made regarding the closure date and adjustments to duty-free policies [2][3] - The operational performance of duty-free businesses is expected to improve, with notable increases in shopping amounts and visitor numbers following the implementation of new policies [3] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In Q3 2025, Hainan's offshore duty-free sales totaled 5.402 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, with shopping visits at 946,800, down 23.4% year-on-year. The average transaction value increased by 27.1% to 5,705.53 yuan [1] - September 2025 saw duty-free sales of 1.733 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with shopping visits at 280,000, down 7.3%, and an average transaction value of 6,189.29 yuan, up 22.0% [1] Policy Developments - On July 23, 2025, the State Council announced the closure date for the Hainan Free Trade Port as December 18, 2025, providing detailed policies that reflect a clear direction for the port [2] - On October 17, 2025, three departments released adjustments to the offshore duty-free policy, expanding the categories of duty-free goods and allowing more purchasing opportunities for travelers [2] Business Expectations - China Duty Free Group reported Q3 2025 revenue of 11.711 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.38%, with net profit down 28.94% to 452 million yuan. However, there were improvements in revenue growth and gross margin on a quarter-on-quarter basis [3] - Following the implementation of the new duty-free policy on November 1, 2025, shopping amounts reached 78.549 million yuan, with significant increases in both the number of purchases and visitors compared to the previous day [3]