Aidea Pharma(SH:688488) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-11-10 06:53Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has successfully completed the first patient enrollment in the Phase III clinical trial of ACC017, an HIV integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) [3] - The global sales of HIV integrase inhibitors are expected to reach nearly $25 billion in 2024, with products containing Bictegravir (BIC) and Dolutegravir (DTG) accounting for approximately $21 billion [3] - The company reported a revenue of 552 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 84.83%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was -7 million yuan, an increase of 88.78% year-on-year [3] - The company anticipates steady growth in its HIV drug sales and maintains revenue forecasts of 737 million, 1.037 billion, and 1.237 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company expects revenue of 737 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 76.4% [5] - The projected net profit for 2025 is -2 million yuan, with a significant turnaround expected in subsequent years, reaching 44 million yuan in 2026 and 88 million yuan in 2027 [5] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 46.2% in 2023 to 81.2% by 2027 [5] - The company’s current price-to-sales (P/S) ratios are projected to be 8.2, 5.8, and 4.9 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] Research Pipeline - The company is making significant advancements in its HIV treatment and prevention pipeline, with the ACC017 tablet entering Phase III clinical trials and other innovative products progressing through clinical stages [4] - The company has established a comprehensive HIV research pipeline, including the first domestically developed integrase combination preparation entering clinical trials and multiple long-acting HIV prevention drugs nearing IND submission [4]