CTS Logistics(SH:603128) Bank of China Securities·2025-11-10 08:58Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and profit in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue of RMB 13.72 billion, down 4.84% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 307 million, down 35.07% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, revenue was RMB 4.95 billion, down 14.95% year-on-year, and net profit was RMB 79 million, down 53.33% year-on-year. The report remains optimistic about the company's internationalization and overseas warehouse strategy [3][8] - The decline in profit is attributed to increased costs from air freight and ongoing investments in overseas warehouses. These investments, while pressuring short-term profits, reflect the company's strategic intent to expand its international network and enhance global service capabilities [8][5] - The company is expected to continue its overseas warehouse construction and international layout, with potential improvements in the operating environment following U.S.-China trade negotiations. The company has established over 90 self-owned overseas sites, covering major ports and logistics nodes across six continents [8][3] Financial Summary - For the years 2025-2027, the company’s projected net profits are RMB 402 million, RMB 452 million, and RMB 513 million, reflecting a year-on-year change of -25.4%, +12.3%, and +13.6% respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 0.31, RMB 0.35, and RMB 0.39, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20.1, 17.9, and 15.8 [5][7] - The company’s revenue is projected to slightly increase from RMB 17.65 billion in 2025 to RMB 19.91 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 0.7%, 5.9%, and 6.5% for the respective years [7][10]