GED(SZ:000539) Changjiang Securities·2025-11-10 10:17Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company's operating revenue for Q3 2025 was 14.576 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.33% due to weak electricity prices impacting main business revenue [5][12] - The average on-grid electricity price in Q3 2025 was 0.463 yuan/kWh, down by 0.060 yuan/kWh year-on-year, indicating significant pressure on pricing [12] - Despite a decline in revenue, the company benefited from a decrease in fuel costs, leading to a 12.39% reduction in operating costs year-on-year, resulting in a gross profit of 2.279 billion yuan, down 5.16% year-on-year [12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 2025 was 0.551 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.25% year-on-year, but the decline was significantly narrowed compared to the first half of the year due to further reductions in fuel costs [12] Summary by Sections Revenue and Pricing - In Q3 2025, the company completed an on-grid electricity volume of 35.206 billion kWh, a slight increase of 0.20% year-on-year, while the cumulative on-grid electricity volume for the first three quarters was 88.572 billion kWh, a decrease of 0.52% year-on-year [12] - The company’s average on-grid electricity price for the first three quarters was 0.473 yuan/kWh, down 0.060 yuan/kWh year-on-year, reflecting the pressure on electricity prices [12] Cost and Profitability - The company’s operating costs in Q3 2025 were 12.297 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.39% year-on-year, which helped alleviate the pressure from weak electricity prices [12] - The gross profit margin improved by 1.02 percentage points year-on-year, despite a decline in gross profit [12] Investment and Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast, expecting EPS for 2025-2027 to be 0.14 yuan, 0.25 yuan, and 0.34 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 34.65x, 18.99x, and 13.83x [12]